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According to the 2024 Global Carbon Budget report released during the United Nations COP29 climate summit, global carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions are projected to reach an unprecedented 41.6 billion metric tons this year, surpassing the previous record of 40.6 billion tons in 2023. This increase is primarily attributed to the continued reliance on fossil fuels and land-use changes such as deforestation and forest fires.
Fossil fuel combustion alone is expected to contribute 37.4 billion tons of CO₂ in 2024, marking a 0.8% rise from the previous year. Natural gas emissions have seen the highest growth at 2.4%, while oil emissions have increased by 0.9%. Coal emissions have risen marginally by 0.2%. Emissions from international aviation and shipping are projected to grow by 7.8% as global travel rebounds post-pandemic
Regionally, India’s emissions are anticipated to grow by 4.6%, driven by escalating energy demands, whereas China’s emissions are expected to see a modest increase of 0.2%. In contrast, the United States and the European Union are projected to reduce their emissions by 0.6% and 3.8%, respectively.
The report underscores the urgency of immediate and substantial emission reductions to meet the targets set by the Paris Agreement. Without significant changes, the remaining carbon budget to limit global warming to 1.5°C could be exhausted within six years.
Professor Pierre Friedlingstein of the University of Exeter, the lead author of the study, stated, “We don’t see a sign of fossil fuel emissions peaking in 2024.” He emphasized that without immediate and steep emissions cuts worldwide, surpassing the 1.5°C threshold is imminent.
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